We may have to wait for many years for a Kremlin insider to explain in detail – what was the logic and motivation behind Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
From an outside perspective – his dictatorship within the Russian federation – was secure.
Whilst discontent may have been a constant annoyance – it was rarely more than just that – an annoyance. And excluding the more westernised major cities – the population continued to support Putin and his United Russia party – allowing him free reign to set the political and economic objectives.
Negatively (and embarrassingly) the failings of the Soviet Union continued to blight Putin’s Russia though – the countries inability to produce world class products in the industrial, electronic and consumer segment continued 30-years after the fall of Marxism.
But like the Soviets – did Putin care?
Annual gross income pre-China flu had risen 10% between 2010 and 2019 (below 2010 during the ’20 pandemic)
The EU remained a constant net importer of Russian goods, with the balance of payments between Russia and the EC bloc – showing balance in favour of Russia between €15 billion 2020 and €70 billion in 2021
And Russia was the 11th largest economy globally and blessed by its natural resources in the energy and mining sectors.
Externally – the annexation of the Crimea – had caused limited outrage in the west, the protection of the Belorussia puppet state had created friction with former allies in the Warsaw Pact, namely Poland and the Baltic states – and NATO’s “sleepwalking” expansion closer to the Russian border – could be considered insulting to Russia.
But in both east and west – Putin – was accepted as the legitimate leader of Russia.
We Populists – unlike the Globalists (Merkel and co) – were never apologists for the Putin regime – but we did hope that Russia at the centre of Eurasia – would find a common understanding with us – and be a co-leader in the anti-communist alliance. Red China and its allies – were our enemies, never Russia.
Unfortunately – the fateful decision by the Kremlin to invade the Ukraine – has made this wish unobtainable – and with Russia’s allies shrinking to solely pseudo communist failed states, like the “rocket boy” in North Korea, Syria, Zimbabwe, Angola, South Africa, Venezuela – and corrupt Pakistan – Russia has instead of remaining a world power has now become solely an “orphan” on the world stage – and perfect pickings to the Reds in China.
Russian energy policy and prices are now dictated by Beijing – with only India as the other large remaining market
Russian foreign policy is now dictated by Beijing – with Putin – regardless of Russian interests having to support China Communist aggression in the Pacific and the Taiwan straits.
And today’s meeting between Putin and the red leader Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan – will no longer be a meeting of equals regardless of their public declarations of a “limitless partnership” but instead the relegation of Russia from a global power to that of a vassal state.